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ZDNET’s key takeaways
- Your phone’s built-in weather app is often unreliable.
- The biggest problem isn’t data, but how the app interprets it.
- Instead, follow a reliable local meteorologist.
If you’ve ever glanced at your phone’s weather app to check the day’s forecast or to help plan for an upcoming storm, you’ve probably run across a scenario where you see an outrageous forecast. It happened to me earlier this week when I noticed my app was predicting more than 13 inches of snow for the Charlotte, NC area. Not only would that be a historic storm, but it would also be fairly apocalyptic for an area where even an inch of snow is a rarity.
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In the days leading up to the storm, the app mellowed out with its totals, but it’s still predicting snowfall when the entire state is gearing up for ice.
So what gives? Why are weather apps so wrong?
How weather apps work
To understand the problem, you need to understand how these apps work.
Google Weather gets its information from “an internal forecasting system that utilizes weather models and observations from global weather agencies.” Similarly, Apple Weather lists data sources that include The Weather Channel and the National Weather Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
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That information is perfectly fine and is the same data professional meteorologists rely on. The problem is what the apps do with this data.
Most weather apps use computer models or even AI to interpret the data they’re given. That analysis can sometimes go astray, and without a human intervening, the predictions get pushed to the public. Further complicating matters is that weather apps can sometimes show results from a single, outlying model run rather than an ensemble, or a combination of many runs that meteorologists use.
In short, there’s no human involved who can make sense of the information or step in to say, “That clearly doesn’t make sense.”
What/who to rely on in a storm
If you want an accurate forecast, the best thing you can do is rely on a human — either a meteorologist at your local news station or an amateur meteorologist.
As a general rule, a local human is going to be a well-educated, experienced voice that not only knows how to interpret the data from national sources but also understands the nuance of your region. Many local weather experts have social media followings these days, and you can find their content on sites like Facebook, X, and TikTok.
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If you don’t already know a trusted, local meteorologist, start with your local news stations (ABC, CBS, or NBC affiliate) or search a site like Reddit for recommendations. Here in the Charlotte area, I’m a big fan of Brad Panovich professionally and North Carolina’s Weather Authority. Both put out frequent updates, explain what’s happening and why without hype, and admit when a forecast is a miss, pointing out what went wrong.
Now, you will see some personalities who lean into the hype and promote outlandish runs for views. There’s one account in particular locally that I know sells clickbait, so I ignore it. Keep an eye on what an account posts and compare it to what actually happens. Once you find a reliable human, stick with them.
I’ve compiled a list of often-recommended sources below. If you have a favorite for your area, drop the name in the comments.
- Arkansas: Zachary Hall
- Asheville, NC: Hunter Ward
- Atlanta, Ga.: Glenn Burns
- Birmingham, Ala.: James Spann
- Chicago: Tom Skilling
- Colorado/Idaho: Kody Wilson
- Dallas, Texas: Rick Mitchell
- Houston, Texas: Pat Calvin
- Nashville, Tenn.: NashSevereWx
- New York City: nymetroweather
- New York/New Jersey/Pennsylvania: Steven DiMartino
- North Carolina: Brad Panovich; North Carolina’s Weather Authority
- Pacific Northwest: Pacific Northwest Weather Watch
- Tampa Bay, Fla.: Denis Phillips
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